Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
